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An Unfamiliar State: How Global Warming Could Change Natural Wisconsin

5/30/2007

_An_Unfamiliar_State_.pdf _An_Unfamiliar_State_.pdf

Executive Summary

Wisconsin residents have a strong connection with the outdoors. Our natural environment provides us with a wide range of recreational and economic opportunities, inspires us with its beauty, and is a big part of Wisconsin’s cultural identity.

Global warming threatens to change much of what we know and love about natural Wisconsin. Indeed, Wisconsin’s climate is already changing, with less ice cover on lakes, the earlier arrival of spring, and more frequent heavy rainstorms.

To prevent the worst impacts of global warming, Wisconsin must do its share to reduce emissions of global warming pollution. Global warming is already occurring worldwide, Wisconsin’s climate is changing, and Wisconsin is a significant contributor to the problem.

• Average temperatures worldwide have increased by 1.3° F over the last century, and temperatures in the last half of the 20th century were likely the highest in at least the last 1,300 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading scientific body evaluating global warming, recently concluded that most of the recent warming is likely due to human activities—particularly the burning of fossil fuels.

• In Wisconsin, average temperatures increased by 0.7° F during the 20th century, extreme rainfall events have become more common, the duration of ice cover on Wisconsin lakes has declined, and springtime events—such as the blooming of plants and the return of migratory birds—are happening earlier in the year.

• Wisconsin is a significant contributor to global warming. Emissions of carbon dioxide—the leading global warming pollutant—increased by 25 percent in the state between 1990 and 2004. Were Wisconsin its own country, it would rank 38th in the world for carbon dioxide emissions, ahead of such nations as Romania, Austria, Sweden and Israel.

• Should emissions of global warming pollutants continue to increase, global average temperatures could increase by another 2° to 11.5° F by the end of this century (depending on future emission trends), bringing with them increases in sea level, changes in precipitation patterns, more frequent heat waves, and shifts in the distribution of species around the globe.

Global warming poses severe threats to the future of natural Wisconsin.

Water
• Global warming could leave the Great Lakes smaller, shallower and less able to sustain healthy populations of fish and aquatic life. As of spring 2007, water levels in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan were well below long-term averages.

• Ice cover on the Great Lakes and inland lakes is projected to decline and water temperatures are expected to increase. These changes could harm fisheries by increasing the potential for oxygen-depleted “dead zones” to appear in the lakes during the summer months. Lake Superior’s average summer surface temperature has increased by 4° F in the last 25 years—a rate of warming much faster than the surrounding air.

• Rivers and streams could experience greater flows during parts of the year as a result of more precipitation, especially in large storm events, thus increasing the risk of flooding. Wisconsin has recently suffered through a string of severe flooding events and eastern Wisconsin has experienced an increasing number of extreme rainfall events.

Forests
• Global warming could reduce or eliminate the Wisconsin habitat of several key tree species—such as the balsam fir, paper birch, white spruce, jack pine and red pine—threatening the state’s pulp and paper and softwood lumber industries. While other species would likely thrive in a warmer Wisconsin, the change may not happen overnight, with a period of forest“dieback” possible before new species can establish themselves.

• Higher temperatures, coupled with other ecosystem changes, could increase the risk of forest fires and pest infestation in Wisconsin forests.

Natural Recreation
• Global warming could reduce or eliminate several popular winter pastimes in Wisconsin—including ice fishing and snowmobiling. In recent years, several winter recreational events—including ice-fishing events and crosscountry ski races—have been forced to cancel or alter their plans due to lack of snow or ice. Warmer temperatures could also reduce the length of downhill skiing seasons.

• Hunting and fishing opportunities in Wisconsin will also be affected by global warming. Populations of several game birds, including ducks, ruffed grouse and ring-necked pheasants are likely to see their ranges shifted northward, and some may have their populations in the state significantly reduced. Cold-water fish species, such as brook trout, brown trout and rainbow trout will lose habitat and perhaps disappear from all but the deepest lakes, due to warmer water temperatures, while cool-water fish species like walleye and perch could find it harder to live in streams and shallow inland lakes.

• Bird and wildlife watchers will experience a changing mix of species. Birds are particularly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and at least three dozen species could be forced from Wisconsin entirely as a result of global warming. Some changes are already taking place: the territory of warblers has been found to have shifted northward over the past two decades.

Farming
Most studies suggest that crop yields will increase in the United States as a result of global warming. But global warming will present a series of new threats and headaches to Wisconsin farmers, including:

• Increased risk of heat stress to cattle, which can reduce production of milk, Wisconsin’s number one farm product. Wisconsin dairy farmers already lose approximately $60 million annually as a result of heat stress.

• Increased risk of drought as a result of higher summer temperatures that increase evaporation of moisture from farm soils. Wisconsin experienced significant drought in 2003 and again in 2006.

• Increased erosion of farm soils, due to heavy precipitation events.

• Increased risk from aggressive weeds and insect pests that could expand their range northward into Wisconsin. To prevent the worst impacts of global warming, Wisconsin, the United States and the world must act. Wisconsin must work to stabilize global warming emissions at or below today’s levels by the end of the decade, reduce emissions by at least 15 to 20 percent by 2020, and reduce emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050.

There is still time to prevent the worst impacts of global warming, but we must act quickly. Wisconsin should:

• Adopt a cap on global warming pollution within the state that will reduce Wisconsin’s emissions by 20 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050.

• Increase our use of renewable energy. Among the steps we can take are:

o Requiring 25 percent of transportation fuel in Wisconsin to come from renewable sources by 2025, while reducing per-mile global warming pollution from vehicles by adopting vehicle emission standards for carbon dioxide and supporting a strengthening of federal fuel economy standards.

o Requiring 25 percent of our electricity to come from clean, homegrown sources such as wind and solar power by 2025.

• Make Wisconsin’s economy more energy efficient. Among the steps we can take are:

o Setting energy efficiency standards that will reduce electricity and natural gas consumption in Wisconsin by 10 percent by 2015.

o Encouraging public and private investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies.